The Cost of the War in Iraq
john posted in politics & culture on January 12th, 2006
Linda Bilmes of Harvard and Joseph E. Stiglitz, of Columbia recently published (Boston Globe coverage) a lengthy piece on the economic costs of the war in Iraq. In it they attempt to count the direct costs and estimate the macro-economic costs. Their conclusion is $1-2trillion.
Neo-Con apologists will nit-pick the numbers in an effort to throw up a smoke screen. But whether you think $800billion or $2trillion is correct is oddly irrelevant. The fact is the war is costing 10 to 20 times what we were told, a number so vast that it dwarfs the re-construction of New Orleans. The money is being spent in Iraq, largely on foreign subcontractors, where it has no Keynesian effect on the American economy. It’s hard to see how the current climate of crony capitalism isn’t producing vast corruption and inefficiency both in Iraq and here. It is a commonplace to observe that our children will be left with a deficit from this war long after Iraq has regenerated itself. The monumental arrogance and stupidity of the Neo-Cons who created this war out of lies, phony spy reports, and oil greed, is still being met with apathy and knee-jerk patriotism. There’s a pall of denial over the land, while politicians on both sides scramble to make sure everybody feels good about themselves. Why should we? We have the most corrupt and inept administration in a century, the biggest government spender ever, and we are still shoveling down the bon-bons and watching TV while the house burns.
There have been other more or less thorough analyses:
William Nordhaus, who did not favor the war, presents a scholarly analysis from 2002-2003. The worst-case scenario predicts a mere $140billion in military appropriations ( currently over $350billion appropriated) and a total macro economic costs near $2trillion.
A scholarly paper ( pdf ) from 2003 from the University of Chicago using Congressional Budget Office estimates makes risibly low estimates of manpower needed and direct costs. Thats uh, Milton Friedman’s school isn’t it? Maybe this war can go bankrupt and the free market can supply a more efficient version.
A source of current direct costs: NationalPriorities, not including appropriations unspent.
A CNN article from 2003 where OMB Director Daniels is quoted:
“White House Office of Management and Budget Director Mitch Daniels told The New York Times in an interview published Tuesday that such a conflict could cost $50 billion to $60 billion — the price tag of the 1991 Persian Gulf War. But Trent Duffy, an OMB spokesman, said Daniels did not intend to imply in the Times interview that $50 billion to $60 billion was a hard White House estimate. “He said it could — could — be $60 billion,” Duffy said (emphasis mine). “It is impossible to know what any military campaign would ultimately cost. The only cost estimate we know of in this arena is the Persian Gulf War, and that was a $60 billion event.”
Fiddling while Rome burns ain’t even in it.
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