jawfish

Why Microsoft Can’t Make it Work
john posted in memes, technologies on July 1st, 2008

Not Just Another Bash-Microsoft Session

Nice things will be said about Microsoft.

I ran across this MS research project page recently when I googled “intelligent adaptive interface.” I was looking to see if anyone was working on making computer and small device interfaces that adapt to the user’s behavior. What I had in mind was using one of the newly-ubiquitous tiny Linux devices as a remote control. On my conventional low-budget stereo and tv devices, the remotes have a gazillion buttons, with no logical placement and no hierarchy. The labels are invisible in the dark and require reading glasses in the light, and inscrutable when actually read. You all know the drill.

Well this very scientific and academic page shows a whole series of Microsoft Research projects on the general notion of adaptive interfaces. At a glance you can tell this is Serious Stuff done by Serious but Nice People ( their pictures are there). They are well-organized, use big-time ideas like Bayesian filters and Matrices, 3D interfaces, “a state-of-the-art psychological studies laboratory,” and so forth. They get to re-examine human-machine physical interfaces, and all sorts of interesting problems.

So what have they come up with?
The infamous talking paper clip.
Yep I am not kidding. OK there is a long list of other things of more substance from implementing encryption to new 3D rendering filters.

Now the MS people I have met have been really smart, and I don’t doubt for a minute that working with these folks would be a real intellectual thrill. But I assure you, bet money on it, they will never solve the remote control button problem, or even improve the visual mess that is Windows. How come I know this at a glance, without any special knowledge? You look at that page, what do you think? And chime in if you disagree.

So why can’t they make it work?
They have meetings.
They have too many people and too much money.
Whatever they do will be diluted and absorbed by the layer after layer of other groups just like them at Microsoft.
They start by going back and questioning premises about human psychology.
They have no test track and feedback loop.
They aren’t hungry.

Feedback
For me, the most interesting of these obstacles (because it could, in theory, be overcome at a big company), is the lack of feedback and test track. The rest are the result of working in a company with 30,000 other smart people, where overhead approaches 100% of total effort. What’s feedback in this case? Feedback is not focus groups. Useful feedback comes from actually writing some software and letting it loose on the public to see if anyone likes it, and actually paying attention to what they say and do. The test track is the venue where you can get good feedback with high frequency.

Let’s look at an analogy, motor racing. In racing you have an absolute test: the order of finish. You have a set of rules, intentionally designed to narrow the problem with constraints to the point where it becomes partially soluble, remains quite difficult, and always has room for improvement. You have competitors and a prize which provide motivation. Good engineering practice is reinforced in racing because at every level there are painful time and resource constraints.

Let me use a type of racing I am familiar with to explain why good practice is reinforced:
In motorcycle road racing a team typically races one or two times a month, but they only get to the track on Tuesday sometimes even Thursday before a Sunday race. Because of cost constraints of many kinds, they only get a few hours of practice, and then qualifying time on the track. Every track is different and requires a new chassis setup, and last year’s settings won’t work, because too many other factors have changed. There are multiple variables to set, and they have unpredictable interactions. Teams have no ability to use the track at other times for testing. There is an unshakable deadline, and somebody wins.

So does this incredibly difficult process produce better engineered bikes?
Lap times get faster every year. C’est tout.

Back to Microsoft, just how are they ever to get this sort of feedback, testing, and motivation? The giant company could spin off into small teams and create a competition. But then what is the test? Microsoft can’t afford to release a bunch of half-baked ideas to the public ( cynics disagree, but I promised not to mock ), so the test is inevitably arbitrary and maybe political. This engenders a kind of corporate navel-staring which can’t produce good work. So no, I don’t think they can innovate, because too much is at stake.

What about the famous iPod, iPhone model of innovation at Apple? The market has clearly voted for that in a big way. Apple is a huge company that nevertheless finds it possible to innovate. The Apple Macintosh approach to the personal computer was to control everything, the hardware, the operating system, the user interface, in the name of consistency, reliability and integration. All of which are other ways to say “control.” Yes Apple is more of a control-freak than Microsoft.

A recent Wired magazine article tried to take on the culture at Apple, inevitably making the question into the culture of Steve Jobs:

Jobs’ fabled attitude toward parking reflects his approach to business: For him, the regular rules do not apply. …
… Apple is … more like an old-fashioned industrial titan than a different-thinking business of the future. Apple operates with a level of secrecy that makes Thomas Pynchon look like Paris Hilton. It locks consumers into a proprietary ecosystem. And as for treating employees like gods? Yeah, Apple doesn’t do that either.

But by deliberately flouting the Google mantra, Apple has thrived. When Jobs retook the helm in 1997, the company was struggling to survive. Today it has a market cap of $105 billion, placing it ahead of Dell and behind Intel…..

It’s hard to see how any of this would have happened had Jobs hewed to the standard touchy-feely philosophies of Silicon Valley. Apple creates must-have products the old-fashioned way: by locking the doors and sweating and bleeding until something emerges perfectly formed. It’s hard to see the Mac OS and the iPhone coming out of the same design-by-committee process that produced Microsoft Vista or Dell’s Pocket DJ music player.

( I have cut out a rather silly comparison to Google)

This probably isn’t the most profound commentary on Apple, but it does try to get at the culture issue that is clearly different, if a bit distasteful. Jobs is famously a screamer, possessed of a legendary “reality distortion field,” in short, a real prima donna. I worked a long time ago for an outfit with a head man like that, The Santa Fe Opera under John Crosby. He ran the opera like a fiefdom, it was housed on his ranch North of Santa Fe, and he usually decided by fiat that he would conduct one of the operas each season. He used his own stable of buddies to conduct, design, and direct. He was known to summarily dismiss even lowly employees for simple offenses like a noisy muffler. Crosby was at best a mediocre conductor, and his taste could veer into the campy and maudlin, but it’s impossible to conceive of the SFO without him. He created a world-class summer residency for opera out of the juniper, sagebrush, and rattlesnakes of New Mexico. Santa Fe was interesting. It was something to sit outside ready for the incredible New Mexico stars, watching a thunderstorm approach down the Rio Grande valley, and have the orchestra break into the Der Fliegender Hollander, or Lulu, the most depressing show I have ever seen, or Falstaff. At its best, it was thrilling, and people cared.

The various Apple iThings were brand-new products, and Jobs bet a good part of the company on them. Poker players call this kind of gamble, “all-in” and it requires an appetite for risk, and an environment where aggression is rewarded. Other companies don’t seem to be able to follow, even when there is such a clear example to copy. Let’s not just dump on Microsoft, why can’t the Japanese or Koreans or Finns make an mp3 player or cell-phone as good as an iPod or iPhone?

Hell, why can’t anybody even make a good remote control or car radio?

Strapless Biking Part 1
john posted in rides on June 9th, 2008

All you biker boys and girls who haul your bikes on trailers or pickups have a set of ratchet or cam-lock nylon webbing straps to hold them down. They work pretty well inside a closed trailer or in the back of a pickup, but on an open trailer like mine they are an irritating pain-in-the-tail. They take too long to install, loosen, flap in the breeze, jam, fray, and rub your paint. They aren’t cheap and the ratchets are designed by some drop-out from the Technical Institute of Inner Berzerkistan. The most troublesome aspect of all, is finding the right length: they just won’t work at all in short stretches, so we couldn’t tie down at the proper angle to the edge of the trailer. With a five-foot wide trailer each bike’s outside hand grip is approximately at the trailer edge, so there is no place to tie to at the proper 45 degree angle. The inner ties interfere with the other bike.

So when we saw a new (to us) kind of locking chock on a fellow’s rig, my riding partner Matt demanded that we get some. I had a set of truly fugly but battleship-rated set of chocks made from quarter-inch steel channel on the trailer. Replacing them with new Bike Shoes from Pit Posse made it lots easier to load the bikes single-handed, and gave a positive clamp on the front wheel. They cost us about $70 each plus shipping.

Part 1: The Chocks - ATK Bike Shoes (only for dirt bikes)

..The inspiration.

These chocks are intended to bolt down to your trailer bed, but as an alternative to permanent mounting, our friend had them bolted to a sheet of plywood which he just threw in the pickup when needed.

....Bolted to the trailer bed.

You can see from the pictures that they are made from tube steel and are sturdy, with good welds and paint. It’s trivial to bolt them down, just drill and bolt. Don’t forget the Locktite and big washers!

Magic thread locker goo.

The mechanism is a bit hard to understand. Look at the picture above with the blue chocks. One is in the open and one in the closed position. One hoop reaches forward under your fender to grab some tire tread, the middle hoop goes along for the ride, and the biggest hoop is pulled down to apply pressure against the tire. This holds the bike upright and locked into the chock.

The Loading Sequence:

	Rolling up onto the trailer.
	Set in open chock.
	Look Ma, even with the chock open, the bike stays up!
	Push the first hoop as far back as it will go, and tuck into the tread.
	Pull the big hoop forward until the tire is squeezed.
	That’s it!

Once we had the chocks bolted down and tested, we were still in the same old situation with the rear of the bikes. Always the rear bounces around and slides sideways, even with a pair of tie-downs. I thought at first that I’d add a piece of of steel channel to the back for each rear wheel, and just tie the wheel down to the bed. But that would have made for awkward permanent trip-me-ups right in the middle of the trailer, and it just didn’t seem like the best solution. Worse, I didn’t have any scrap of the right size, like I did for the front. See Part 2 for the solution.

Strapless Biking Part2
john posted in rides on June 9th, 2008

In Part 1 I showed some nice new motorcycle wheel chocks called Bike Shoes, installed on my trailer. They eliminated the problems with using tie-downs on the front of the bike. No more compressed suspension, loose ties, and jammed ratchets. And they make loading and un-loading he bikes much quicker - something that happens four times on every ride.

But I still wasn’t satisfied with the system for the rear of the bike. If we just installed some channel or blocks to hold the wheels, the bike would still jump around when the trailer hits bumps, and the attachment points on the bike are too low and too close to the trailer rings to use a proper angle with the ties. Here’s what I did instead:

Part 2: Turnbuckle Tie-Downs

One of the problems with the nylon webbing ties is that they only work in tension, not in compression. As soon as you pull on them sideways they stretch or the ratchet gives a little, and there goes your tension. I thought of making some long poles with clips on the end, but without a way to adjust them, they would have too much play. And they would flop around and be in the way when not in use. But then someone pointed out that the foot pegs were ideal tie down points. They are strong and in about the right place for the trailer. Nobody cares if they get scratched, and they have holes for connections. They are much too close to the ground for webbing ties, but a turnbuckle fits the distance, roughly 12 inches, easily.

Turnbuckles come with closed eyes or hooks, however, both of which present problems. The hooks connect easily, but not positively, so you only get tension, not compression. The eyes require some sort of clip or bolt. But the turnbuckle itself is stiff and readily adjustable. (In the picture below you can see a modified turnbuckle with larger eye.)

..parts needed.

Attaching to the bed:
After some thought I decided to go on using the same 3/8″ eyebolts, that I had already used on the trailer for tie-down points. I needed to connect two eyes together. They eyebolts have an eye with approximately 7/8″ inside diameter, which is way to large for a connector bolt, so I scrounged through the little baggies of gear at the store until I found a bushing that fit tightly inside the eye. I needed a little Dremel work to grind the eye larger on some, but I left the bushing alone as it had flat sides. I held the bikes up in the chocks and measured each one ( good thing - they are different) to get a trailer attachment point with a good angle to the footpeg.

Rear view showing turnbuckle angle:

..Yes, that’s a trials tire I am testing.

So now we knew where to attach to the trailer and how long the turnbuckle unit should be to be able to reach and still tighten up. The eye bolt on the trailer had to attach to the eye bolt on the turnbuckle. So I took a bolt that matches the inside diameter of the bushing, two large fender washers, and the bushing, and make a sandwich with the bushing between and inside the two eyes. This makes a fitting almost as tight as a machined fitting, yet it can still rotate in two axes. Don’t forget to add a little grease and use Locktite on the nut. This combo gives you adjustment and a simple attachment to the floor, yet retains its stiffness in both tension and compression.

..Eyebolt with bushing.

..Finished joint.

Adjusting to each bike:
Now that we have a way to attach the turnbuckle to the trailer, we can look at the length. Our two bikes are a bit different and one was too high for the one size of turnbuckle available. So I used a piece of threaded rod and a coupling nut to make an extra-long eyebolt. Of course this meant I had to use the normal right-handed end of the turnbuckle, with the left handed end using the turnbuckle’s own eye. On the other bike I was able to just substitute a longer screw eye for the one that came with the turnbuckle.

In both cases I used an eyebolt with a larger eye diameter to match the eyebolts on the trailer. You can see this in the picture of hardware above.

..Made-up long screw eye.

..Longer eyebolt:

Connecting to the footpeg:
Now I had to connect the screw eye to the footpeg with some easy device that requires no tools, because this connection will be made and broken every time you use the bike. I had a couple of crude rigger’s carabiners with threaded nuts that worked fine for one side, but I only had two, so I sat and stared at it for a while. I decided to accomplish two tasks with one device: by using a padlock as a connector I would be locking the bike to the trailer, and solve the connector problem. It turned out that a standard padlock is just the right shackle size to make a good connection, so I bought a pair of keyed-alike ones. It might make sense to just use four padlocks if you try this rig. The padlocks are really easy to use, and make a tighter connection than the carabiners.

..Carabiner.

..Padlock.

Using the system:
You could use this system without the Bike Shoe chocks, and I used to do it by myself with the ratchet tie-downs using the bike’s kickstand. However there isn’t much slack in a turnbuckle- only about 40% of total length- and it might be difficult to get the first one on without losing the bike. So you might need a helper. One turnbuckle will hold the bike ( that tension plus compression), so the second one is not a problem.

We had already installed our slick new Bike Shoes (see Part 1), so loading the bikes is now easy and quick.

1) Roll the bike up and lock it into the chock.
2) Unscrew one turnbuckle and connect it to the footpeg, leaving some slack.
3) Repeat for the other turnbuckle. At this point the bike is extremely stable, but there is some play at the footpeg.
4) Tighten both turnbuckles. (Don’t over-tighten, for instance by using a lever, because a turnbuckle can exert tons of force. You might pull the eye right out of the bed or bend your peg.)
5) You are done. Go riding.

Tightening the turnbuckle:	Ready to go.

Before, even with four tie-downs on each bike, after a run up a rough road we always had to get out and re-adjust because the bikes were flopping around. The more they moved, the looser they got. The trailer has quite a rough ride ( the next trailer I build is going to have shocks). After, with the turnbuckles, the whole trailer moves as a unit, bikes and all. The bikes’ suspension is only slightly compressed beyond the resting position, and we automatically have the security of padlocks for those long nighttime stops at the Chinese buffet.

What else you can do:
For road racers who transport bikes a lot, this would make a great system. You will have to find a way to attach to the footpeg though. You could drill a hole right through the peg, but you could also make a backingplate with two holes, one for the peg-shaft and one for the turnbuckle. Then take the peg off and re-install it with the plate between it and the frame. You might want to bend the plate to get the attachment point away from the bodywork. Some bikes will have a hollow axle where you could put a skewer through the rear. Using two eyes, threaded rod, and coupling nuts you could make a skewer that would work. You could substitute a clevis pin or even a bolt for the carabiner attachment to the footpeg, but the padlock works so well, I’d advise to keep that.

The author	Brer Matt, the chocks were his idea.
	.. Yes Matt’s wearing a genuine Sharkbait t-shirt.

Smart Fortwo Car Reviewcomment
john posted in rides on March 28th, 2008

Update: I test drove a Smart coupe today on my daily driving loop. It is plenty fast on the freeway and merging, and did well in strong, gusty winds. The auto mode transmission still lurches, but not as badly. The paddle-shifters manual-mode work fine, even with quick downshifts. I had forgotten how easy it is to get in and get out of, the doors are huge. The interior was nicely done for a small car. So my objections about the transmission are put to rest. The gas mileage is reported by new owners as 40 mpg on the freeway, which is just what the EPA sticker says. This is quite disappointing, considering a Honda Insight ( no longer sold) can get up to 70 with practice. A Toyota Yaris or Honda Fit is just as good on mileage, or nearly so, and a lot bigger car. In Europe they get a very-high-mileage diesel version.

---

We went down to LA to the uber-hip Smart House to test drive a Smart Fortwo.

not-your-usual-showroom Venice CA

Our car spec is:
1) minimal cost - Prius is too much at $26k+
2) minimal energy use - Smart is in the same range as Prius.
3) two seats and room for light luggage or groceries
4) more interesting than boring old Prius
5) AC, CD-Radio, electric locks and windows
6) freeway capable
7) airbags and roll-over protrection
fits my six foot well-over 200 lbs frame
10) alloy wheels - I don’t ever want to see another hubcap.

See a gallery of pictures here.

The Smart meets all these, plus has a cool Tiptronic-style auto-manual paddle shift transmission, and is so tiny you can park it end-in instead of parallel. Cost, for the middle level of options, is somewhere between $13.5K and $17k .

Passion model with silver frame.

Options:

Pure is the base model - I bet they sell none. no AC or radio or sunroof! I am ignoring it from here on.
Passion is the middle model - I bet 80% are these. Has fixed glass ( polycarbonate) roof, and all the options we need.
Cabriolet is the convertible version of the Passion.

All are three-cylinder, gasoline powered rear drive. ABS brakes are standard on the Passion.

The sales people weren’t entirely clear on some small items like MP3 support, glove box, and the funny ash-tray or CD holder choice. The cars also have built-in attachment points for bike racks. The Passion and Cab have only one engine option so far, though in Europe they have several engines, and battery-electrics and super-clean diesels are said to be in the future. Update: Passion ( Coupe) has plug-in MP3 capable CD-player.

Why?

Because its cheap, hip, gets something like 32-42 mpg in the real world, and parks where no other car dares to go. Keep the SUV for towing your boat, and drive this little puppy to work every day. Pick up girls/boys/whatever.

Driving Impression:

We drove a Euro-spec one with the Tiptronic-style auto-manual tranny, but no paddle shifters. ( see update) The transmission was not working correctly, it had a huge lag in shifting. Either it’s automatic-adjust-to-your-driving-style was totally confused by the multitude of testers, or it’s just plain broken. I can’t believe it comes that way based on the large number sold in Europe. This is the smallest car on the road, but it is quite comfy for two men, and easier to get in and out than my Honda Civic. Visibility was excellent, and oddly it feels far bigger than it is. It’s no racer, but it keeps up with traffic more or less like a base-model automatic Corolla. It felt solid and quiet, given that it is a tiny econobox.

Fit and Finish:

Because it is so light, a bit more than half the weight of a Prius, you have to expect the body work and interior to be a bit motorcycle-like. The front hood for example, is just a plastic cover, without hinges, that snaps in place. The gas door is similarly just a cheap piece of plastic. The seats and interior panels looked fine, and the controls and knobs were similar to inexpensive cars from other makers. The trunk releases were flimsy, as was the special storage panel in the trunk door. I think you expect some breakage in these parts, and they should be handled gently. Angry teenage drivers will tear the plastic stuff right off the car. But steering, door handles and seats felt solid. From the start the Smart has used snap-in replaceable body panels, so you can decide to have a different color just by buying the set of panels. This will make minor repairs cheaper, as no paint matching is required. The frame is actually a kind of roll cage, visible from the outside and inside ( see the cutaway views on the gallery) . It comes in two colors, metallic silver and standard black. You get to mix and match with the body colors: white, grey, black, blue, red, and yellow. Just exactly why anyone would buy such a cute car in a boring color is a mystery, they should have electric green, orange, plus some nice pastels.

Aftermarket:

The car screams for customization, from the replaceable body panels, to the wimpy little motor. It has a very cute but masculine personality -unlike VW bugs, men will buy them - much like the eager quality of the original Mini Cooper. I foresee photo-realistic murals on body panels, LED lights, sound systems, fancy seats, lots of engine upgrades, wider wheels and the usual suspension bits. I would think an autocross or even road racer would be possible.

What to ask about:

There is a power steering option, which I had no need for.
Which transmission are you getting, with the paddle shifters and manual option?
Does the CD-Radio have an MP3 option, or is that only on the Cab model?
Is there a real glove box, or just a space?
Some colors are extra, as are leather seats and special wheels.
Check out the racks for bicycles.

How do I buy one?

They are going to sell through Mercedes dealers ( Daimler Benz has been an owner since the Swatch company bowed out). The Penske organization holds the distributorship, which usually means everything is organized down to the paperclips, but there is a certain vagueness about dates and locations. They say, January or February 2008.

Dear Smart:

Let’s get more daring with the colors!
Get the super-clean turbo diesel in.
Move as fast as you can on the lithium-electric version.
Clean up the cheap plastic.
ForTwo is the dumbest name since the Charade.

Added: a video of a head-on crash test

Notice that the safety cell frame remained intact, one door even works after the crash.

Take Your Rebate and Shove it
john posted in politics & culture on January 22nd, 2008

George:

Take your tax rebates and put ‘em where the sun don’t shine. You can’t buy me for a smidgin of what I pay in taxes, year in and year out, while you spend like it’s your birthday and Daddy is paying the bills. Instead stop wasting that money on Iraq and your gargantuan military boondoggles right now. Stop kissing up to the Saudis and the Israelis, oil is over.

Get with the program. We need to start building the post-oil economy now, while we still can. We’ve already wasted 7 years of your ridiculous administration and what, a trillion dollars? Dude thats coming out of your allowance! Get back in your room and clean up the mess right now, and wipe that silly smirk off your face.

signed,
an adult who pays the bills

see
Reuters
Bloomberg
and many more….

and oh joy I actually agree, more or less with the WSJ, there’s a first
WSJ